Residential real estate
purchases listed in the MLS system for the Venice area have gone from less than
5% being made on an all cash basis prior to the economic crisis, compared to
over 60% each year from 2010 to this (MFRMLS, 2015). It also appears that the
area's cash sales volume cannot merely be attributed to investors picking up
foreclosed properties. Two local builders' representatives report 50-60% of
their communities' new home sales have been made with all cash in the past couple
of years, and that the volume of sales and demand have greatly exceeded
corporate expectations during that time as well. The total number of residential home sales
recorded in the local MLS system for 2014 was actually 38% higher than the
total for the 2005 calendar year in
the midst of the housing bubble (MFRMLS,
2015). This also indicates that the
proportion of purchases made with lending cannot significantly be attributed merely
to increase lending standards that are subsequently eliminating a section from
the market or from the clearing of foreclosures as some would claim.
Local Market Analysis
Description. Lifestyle
characteristics. Venice
is a quiet suburban location conveniently placed in between a number of more
metropolitan areas with major airports.
Sarasota is a mere 20 minutes away, about an hour to Fort Myers, Tampa
is about an hour and a half drive, while Orlando and its attractions are only
about 2.5 hours away. The Tamiami Trail,
Route 41, is a major traffic corridor through the city and lays approximately
midway between the coast of the Gulf of Mexico and Interstate 75. It has a charming historic downtown are with a
park, theater, restaurants and shopping. There are many local golf courses in and near
Venice.
Population. Venice, itself, is a small city
with a population of just over 21,000 (Bureau of Economic and Business
Research, 2014) located in Sarasota County, Florida. This figure is for the city proper and not
including the greater range of Venice addresses. Available data is not exactly clear as to the
population estimate for the broader targeted Venice 'area.' The applicable zip
codes that can have Venice mailing addresses are: 34275, 34285, 34292, and
34293. Properties within the last three
listed all would have Venice addresses. A very small percentage of residences within
the 34275 zip code currently have Venice mailing addresses. Population
estimates from the 2013 American Community Survey for the three zip codes
combined are 65,623 persons in 2013,
64,395 in 2012, and 64,062 in 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2010).
Age of population. The area is known
for having an older population, as it is popular for retirees. Florida, in general, has a reputation for its
substantial number of seniors, which for 2013 was estimated to have 18.7% of its population at 65 years of age or
older ("Sarasota County
Quick Facts," 2013). The
statistic for Sarasota County during the same timeframe was significantly
higher at 33.3% of the population ("Sarasota County Quick
Facts," 2013). "Among
Florida’s counties, Sarasota County has the third‐highest
percentage of residents aged 65 and over, the second‐highest percent‐age of residents
aged 75 and over, and the highest percentage of residents aged 85 and
over" (Sarasota County Planning
Services [SCPS], 2012, July, p. 1). The
Venice area of Sarasota County is comprised of sections with a generally higher
median age than much of the rest of the county at a figure greater than 64
years of age, as can be seen in Figure 1 from Sarasota County Planning Services
(SCPS, 2012).
Economic status. Only about 9% of
the population was persons below the poverty level from 2008-2012 (U.S. Census Bureau, n.d.). The majority of people own their own home, at
72%, with a median home value of $180,800 for owner-occupied units, and the
median household income is $46,404 (U.S.
Census Bureau, n.d.). It might be
argued that the household income figure could be somewhat deceptive, however,
as it does not include capital gains or some supplemental retirement benefits (U.S. Census Bureau, n.d.). These are likely to be, or have been for the
data referenced, sources of income for the many residents of the area. As a result, using the household income figures from the U.S. Census
Bureau (n.d.) could potentially
create a significantly skewed view of the local economy. Additionally, the Census Bureau's income
figure is pre-expenses, so it is before mortgage expenses, etc. An area where a higher proportion of the
population owns their residence outright will also have a higher proportion of
discretionary income compared to another area with similar household income
figures. The impacts of this excluded income and of expense differences may
warrant future research to determine if it is the case, and if so, to what
degree.
Residential units. The Sarasota County Property
Appraiser's website was utilized to search and download data spreadsheets on
August 1st, 2015, listing all properties within applicable zip codes (Sarasota County Property Appraiser
[SCPA], 2015). From the list of all
properties gathered for each zip code, non-residential and vacant or units
under construction were eliminated from consideration. Subdivisions were included for consideration
where mailing addresses of 'Venice' or 'North Venice' in instances that the
physical street address matched the mailing address. Three instances of this criterion were also
included that were listed as not in a subdivision. The result is an estimated 1,443 residential
units for zip code 34275 that would be considered Venice area domiciles. There are 11,915 residential units listed for
the City of Venice with zip code 34285. Zip
code 34292 all have Venice physical addresses listed. There are 8,187 completed residential units in
place within zip code 34292. Zip code
34293 resulted in 20,240 residential units in place. This totals 41,785 residences contained in the
research target area of Venice area.
Growth. According to Census.gov's State and
County Quick Facts for Venice, Florida, the 2013 population estimate is 21,253
individuals; this is a 2.4% increase over the 2010 U.S. Census (U.S. Census Bureau, n.d.). Venice is 15.27 square miles with
approximately 1359 persons per square mile, according to the 2010 Census (U.S. Census Bureau, n.d.). At the time of the Census, only 6.1% of the
population was under 18 years of age, while 57% of the population was comprised
of individuals 65 years of age and older (U.S. Census Bureau, n.d.).
It is
considered an area of high-growth due to considerable expansion in new home
construction (Bureau of Economic and
Business Research, 2014). And,
according to the local MLS (My
Florida Regional MLS [MFRMLS], 2014; MFRMLS, 2015), the volume of home
sales has been on a considerable upward trend in the past 5 years, increasing
an average of 15% per year from 2008 through 2013 (Figure 2). Increases in new home construction and
increases in sales volumes indicate an increasing demand, while the number of
active listings (Figure 3) has been on a downward trend over the past 5 years (MFRMLS, 2014). A housing economist
for Trulia says that their data shows this market area is currently one of the
top ten fastest moving in the nation (McLaughlin, 2015).
The proportion of residents
over 65 is projected to grow to about 40% by the year 2030 (SCPS, 2012), as the last of the
Baby Boomer generation reaches retirement age. The population is anticipated and planned to
grow with other age categories as well (SCPS, 2012). The resident population of Sarasota County is
estimated at about 390,000 for 2014 with an additional winter seasonal
population of 100,000 (SCPS, 2015).
Sarasota County Planning Services [SCPS]
says that the population is growing at less than 1% currently, or about 5 new
residents per day (SCPS, 2015, p. 2).
However, that rate is expected to
increase dramatically over the next decade, with an anticipated average of
2,000 new housing units added per year to accommodate the growth (SCPS, 2015). Permits for new residential units reached
1,196 in 2014, up over 382% since the low figure in 2009 (SCPS, 2015). SCPS also reports that two-thirds of the
growth that was seen for the county during 2011 through 2013 was in South
County (SCPS, 2015, p. 2), which
is predominantly comprised of the area targeted in the scope of this review.
Final Commentary
Venice, Florida, is a growing
resort-style, coastal area popular for retirement living. With Baby Boomers reaching retirement age in
greater volume, and many finally seeing their retirement funds recovered from
the downturn, the housing market demand is escalating for the area. This is clearly shown by the data. Increases in new home construction and
increases in sales volumes indicate an rising demand and sales prices, while the number of
active listings has been on a downward trend over the past 5 years (MFRMLS, 2015). The local Neighborhood Development Services
Department recently received 42 applications for new home permits in the target
area from just one builder in one single day (City of North Port, 2015, p. 4). In the
consecutive 8 months through June 2015, that same department issued a total of
528 residential building permits (City
of North Port, 2015, p. 4). The local real estate market for Venice, Florida, is certainly taking off, and the future outlook suggests that a home purchase in the
area may be a very good option from a personal investment perspective. If you are considering a home here, act sooner rather than later due to rising home values.
Look forward to hearing from you!
Ali
U.S. Census Bureau. (2010). DP05, ACS demographic and housing estimates: 2009-2013 American
Community Survey 5-year estimates [Data]. Retrieved from http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/community_facts.xhtml#none
If you are
considering purchasing a home in this community, I can assist you. My services
and extensive resources are of no cost to you, and in most instances, I am able
to save home buyers some money. I
do not work for any of the wonderful builders in the West Villages Improvement
District, or any others for that matter. My services and information (including
the resources provided on all of my websites) are wholly independent
of these developers. No other independent professional is more knowledgeable
about this community, and enlisting me to assist with your transaction also serves
to fund these resources to keep them available for you and others on an ongoing
basis.
Aileen “Ali”
Johnston, MHA, MBA in Real Estate
Realtor®,
Hoover Realty LLC
Mobile:
941-539-5771
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