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SARASOTA / BRADENTON HOUSING 2Q17: New Home Starts Decline, As 2Q17 Has Best Quarterly Closings Since Recession
Metrostudy NewsAugust 7, 2017
- 2Q17 Quarterly New Home Starts Down 1.5% YoY & Annual Starts Up 2.2% YoY
- 2Q17 Quarterly Closings Up 8% YoY & Annual Closings Up 10% YoY
- New home production continues to trend to higher price ranges, with starts over $250K up 9.7% YoY
Metrostudy’s 2Q17 survey of the Sarasota-Bradenton housing market shows 1,457 single-family units were started in the second quarter of 2017, down 1.5% compared to 2Q16 but a 7% increase from 1Q17. The annual start rate totaled 5,515, up by 2.2% compared to the same quarter last year. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 1,540 units, 5.8% higher than 2Q16 levels. The annual closings rate was 5,380 units, 10% above the rate in 2Q16.
“The second quarter of 2017 had the best quarterly closing rate since the recession, but the first two quarters of 2017 have been down in terms of new housing starts versus the same quarter of 2016,” said Tony Polito, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Sarasota/Bradenton market. “This may be reflective of some price pressure however, Manatee County’s average closing price per square foot was level at $145/SF with the 2016 rate, and Sarasota County saw its average price per square foot fall from $157 to $154 over the same period. Even with this slight decline in housing starts, the Sarasota/Bradenton market is building at 119% of its 20-year moving average and it is one of only two Florida markets building above the long-term average. Naples/Ft. Myers is the other.”
For the twelve months ending June 30, 2017, annual new home starts in price ranges under $250K totaled 1,277 units, down 16.7%% from 2Q16. Annual new home starts in prices over $250K were up 9.7% from the rate at the end of 2Q16. The marginal 118-unit increase in the annual start pace was split: 256 fewer units under $250K and 374 more units above $250K.
In 2Q17, Manatee, Sarasota, and Charlotte Counties were the region’s top three markets based on annual starts. Manatee County recorded 2,649 annual housing starts, up 0.6% from 2Q16. Sarasota County had 2,114 annual starts, up 2.9% from the same quarter last year. Charlotte had 746 annual starts ending 2Q17, a 6.7% increase from 2Q16. During the second quarter of 2017, Manatee County recorded 629 starts, down 7.2% from the prior quarter and down 5.3% from 2Q16. Sarasota County recorded 482 starts, down 18.4% from 1Q17 and down 13.9% from 2Q16. Venice is now building 174% of the volume of North Manatee but 60% of the volume of SE Manatee County.
Total single-family inventory, which is composed of units under construction, finished vacant and models, equaled 2,832 units on the ground at the end of the second quarter, a 6.3-month supply and up 5% from last year. Compared to last year, under construction inventory rose by 17 units to 2,077. Finished vacant inventory increased by 28.6% YoY to 463 in 2Q17. However, the number of move-ins exceeded completions during the quarter and FV inventory decreased by 33 units. We consider FV equilibrium between 1.5 and 2 months. As of June 30, 2017, the months of supply of FV units for all of Sarasota/Bradenton stood at 1.0 months. All told, total inventory of 6.3 months is at the low end of equilibrium, but price increases may be difficult.
The table below ranks the top ten communities in the market by annual starts:
Community (Area) Annual Starts
Lakewood Ranch ……………………………………901
The West Villages …………………………………..428
Palmer Ranch…………………………………………229
Del Tierra……………………………………………….207
Grand Palm ……………………………………………185
South Gulf Cove ……………………………………..171
Rotonda …………………………………………………168
Punta Gorda Isles …………………………………..160
Milano…………………………………………………….153
Sarasota National ……………………………………131
About Metrostudy: Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com
Metrostudy contact: Tony Polito, 813.888.5151, tpolito@metrostudy.com
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